Who will be the biggest political loser in Israel’s ground war in the Gaza Strip?
You might not believe it, but it could be Hamas.
The terrorist group, which has been launching rockets into southern Israel now has to deal with the region’s dominant military power. While the New York Times reports that in the year and a half since Israel seized control of the territory, Hamas has been able to smuggle in more sophisticated weapons, which has been on display in recent weeks. Even under heavy fire, the paper reports, Hamas has been able to hit Israeli cities with long-range weaponry.
Even with the new high-tech toys of destruction however, Hamas can’t match Israel in arsenal (Hamas doesn’t have an air force or navy, both of which Israel is using to pound the Gaza Strip). Hamas may have overplayed its hand, and it’s political leadership could find itself on the wrong side of the people it rules.
Hamas stands for one thing: the destruction of Israel and its people. You can’t sustain yourself politically if destruction is the only thing you stand for.
Here’s where Hamas gets it wrong: The people of the Gaza Strip are furious that their homes are being destroyed by Israeli warplanes.
More than 400 Palestinians have been killed so far in this latest military action, and you can be sure that number will go higher before all of this is over. However, they will increasingly point their collective finger in the direction of Gaza City, not Tel Aviv. For them, it’s a very simple proposition: Hamas’s rockets into southern Israel are bringing destruction on my house and death to my family. When can we get rid of these guys in Gaza City and get a new government than will stop the roar of fighter jets?
The finger won’t be pointed in the direction of Gaza City this time, as there is too much hostility on both sides, and to be frank, it’s too early in the war for anyone to seriously think about a cease fire. A new American administration waits in the wings, so everyone will hold his position until they can decide whether President Barack Obama will truly be an honest broker in the region. My guess is that Obama will use his vast store of political capital to broker a temporary cease-fire to end the bloodshed. After that, look for the people of the Gaza Strip to seriously question their leadership. While there won’t be a coup, the current political leadership will find itself increasingly unpopular – and less able to recruit suicide bombers from families who are finding less reasons to celebrate their childrens’ “martyrdom.” At their core, all parents want their children to live well and prosper in the world.
Want to hear an Arab perspective on Hamas? Check out this blog, which I find fascinating.
Hamas is also finding Arab leaders are increasingly critical of them and their provocations. A cease-fire could prove an opportune moment for a leader like King Abdullah II of Jordan to step into the spotlight and provide a pathway to peace in the Gaza Strip. Make no mistake, Obama needs Abdullah if he wants to be remembered as the American president who brought a lasting peace to the Middle East.
Ultimately, though, it will be the people of the Gaza Strip who will exert the most pressure on Hamas to make peace, even if Hamas’ leadership have to swallow much of their bile to do it.
It’s one thing to be for the destruction of a country you hate, it’s quite another when that destruction comes at the cost of families. That political math will never truly add up.
